Election Forecasting, some PDFs and a nickle

Mike Ward
Tuesday, October 23, 2012 - 9:32am

This isn't about the conflict we normally study, but Florian Hollenbach, Jacob Montegomery and I have developed some techniques for averaging forecasts. The basic idea was published in Political Analysis (Summer 2012), but we have been involved in predicting the popular vote for the incumbent in the upcoming election. Our approach takes the models and estimates from experts in American Politics. We then create a weighted ensemble of those estimates, where the weights are established based on how accurate the models have been in past predictions.



Updated Forecasts: including Japanese International Crisis

Mike Ward
Saturday, October 13, 2012 - 10:54am

We have some new input data which  in combination with our current models, provide some interesting predictions of new crisis events.  In this example, I'll focus on the variable international crisis, but provide a table with a broader set of predictions as well.



Duke Model Predictions

Mike Ward
Thursday, September 27, 2012 - 11:37am

Based on the analysis and data as of 30 August 2012 (build 0.61) the following results are of interest.

We have recently incorporated data into our models that brings us current to the middle of 2012. And as a result, we have calculated a set of watch lists for countries that show a high probability of the onset of a new event in the next 6 months, based on our analysis of data from January 1997 through June 2012.