Howard Liu
Monday, August 4, 2014 - 3:53pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until July 2014. Forecasts here are for August 2014.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Howard Liu
Tuesday, July 8, 2014 - 8:41am

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until June 2014. Forecasts here are for June 2014.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Andy Beger
Tuesday, June 10, 2014 - 12:17pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until April 2014. Forecasts here are for May 2014.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Andy Beger
Thursday, June 5, 2014 - 4:13pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until March 2014. Forecasts here are for April 2014.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI in October, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Andy Beger
Thursday, June 5, 2014 - 4:07pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until February 2014. Forecasts here are for March 2014.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI in October, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Andy Beger
Thursday, June 5, 2014 - 3:57pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until December 2013. Forecasts here are for February 2013.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI in October, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Andy Beger
Thursday, June 5, 2014 - 3:51pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until November 2013. Forecasts here are for December 2013.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI in October, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Kathryn Alexander
Thursday, June 5, 2014 - 3:45pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until October 2013. Forecasts here are for November 2013.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI in October, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.



Florian Hollenbach
Thursday, October 31, 2013 - 12:16pm

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until May 2013. The models are based on an in-sample calibration period up until September 2012 and a test period from October 2012 through May 2013. Based on the statistical models we then make forecasts for 6 months into the future, here we focus on our forecasts for the five EOIs for July 2013.



Mike Ward
Thursday, October 31, 2013 - 12:16pm

This isn't about the conflict we normally study, but Florian Hollenbach, Jacob Montegomery and I have developed some techniques for averaging forecasts. The basic idea was published in Political Analysis (Summer 2012), but we have been involved in predicting the popular vote for the incumbent in the upcoming election. Our approach takes the models and estimates from experts in American Politics. We then create a weighted ensemble of those estimates, where the weights are established based on how accurate the models have been in past predictions.



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